On July 4, 2024, the UK will witness another General Election, as announced by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. This key political event raises significant questions about potential effects on London’s bustling property market. During the previous General Election in December 2019, there was anticipation of a ‘Boris Bounce,’ which referred to an expected increase in house sales and property prices. However, experts this year are not predicting a similar spike post-election. The Standard spoke to several London experts.

Limited Disruption Expected

Dominic Agace, chief executive of Winkworth estate agents, expressed his views, saying, “We don’t expect significant disruption.” He supported his opinion with data from a study conducted by Dataloft, which revealed that house prices increased by 4.2% across the UK in the three months leading up to the December 2019 election but only by 0.7% in the three months following it.

Interestingly, Agace noted that the most substantial house price growth occurred during Tony Blair’s tenure, contrary to the popular belief that Margaret Thatcher’s era, with the introduction of Right to Buy, saw the biggest increases. Under Blair, average property prices rose by £48 per day.

Short-term Effects of Election Uncertainty

The research also highlighted that the impact of pre-election uncertainty typically affects property prices for just three to four months leading up to voting day. Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, aligned with this view, stating, “We don’t see the election having as big an impact as in previous years.” He noted the lack of significant policy differences between the two main parties, especially concerning housing, except for some emphasis on reforming the private rental sector and boosting housing supply.

Election Timing and Market Dynamics

The surprise timing of this election coincides with the annual summer slowdown in the property market, which could further diminish its impact. Donnell predicted a temporary pause in the pace of new sales agreements as the election approaches but suggested that buyers close to finalizing purchases would likely push to close deals promptly. Meanwhile, those early in the buying process might defer their decisions until after the election.

A Call for Clarity

Adam Lawrence, chief executive of London Square, a development company, responded positively to the election announcement, emphasising that it provides much-needed clarity. “We have been in limbo for so long,” Lawrence said. “We welcome clarity. It will be good for the housing sector and business generally. We need a new Government now with a clear mandate to drive the UK forward.”

Housing Activists and the Call for Reforms

The election is also a pivotal moment for housing activists. The current government has been criticized for failing to fulfill its promises, such as banning no-fault evictions—a commitment made in the 2019 Conservative Manifesto. Tom Darling, campaign manager of the Renters’ Reform Coalition, highlighted that the government’s failure to deliver these promises precipitated the need for the election. “The announcement of the general election for July 4th is confirmation that the government have failed to deliver that manifesto commitment,” he stated.

Darling also pointed out that if the current government isn’t prepared to make significant changes through the parliamentary ‘washup’ process, then the proposed Renters Reform Bill should be scrapped, and the next government should start afresh.