The housing market in Northern Ireland is exhibiting promising signs of stability and marginal growth. According to the latest Northern Ireland Quarterly House Price Index Report from Ulster University, the average house price in the region for the first three months of the year was £206,754. This marks a slight increase of 0.6% compared to the last quarter of 2023 and an annual rise of 2.4% compared to the first quarter of the previous year.
The report, compiled in collaboration with the Northern Ireland Housing Executive and Progressive Building Society, underscores a period of price consistency dating back to the second half of 2023, pointing to a stable economic backdrop that has bolstered consumer confidence.
Price Movements by Property Type
The market’s dynamics vary significantly across different types of properties. Terrace and townhouse segments have experienced a small price uplift of 1.5%, while detached homes saw a modest increase of 0.2%. In contrast, the semi-detached and apartment sectors witnessed declines of 1.0% and 2.4%, respectively. Despite these mixed trends, all segments except apartments showed annual price increases, with the overall market observing an unweighted annual growth rate of 1.7%.
Economic Factors Influencing the Market
Dr. Michael McCord, an expert from Ulster University, explained that the general economic uncertainty prevalent throughout 2023 has begun to stabilise. Key economic indicators such as inflation, which has eased to 3.2%, and the steady Bank of England base rate, have contributed to a calmer mortgage interest rate environment. This stability is expected to further bolster consumer confidence and buyer activity moving forward.
Estate agents across Northern Ireland report a continuous demand for homes, despite ongoing pressures on household incomes. According to Ursula McAnulty, head of research at the Housing Executive, 85% of agents observed that recent interest rate fluctuations had only a marginal impact on demand. Most agents anticipate an increase in house prices in the coming months, primarily due to ongoing supply constraints and an expected slowdown in new build completions in 2024.
Michael Boyd, CEO of Progressive Building Society, highlighted a cautious optimism among potential buyers, spurred by a steady interest rate environment and a fundamental shortage of housing supply. Boyd predicts a buoyant period for the market, dependent on the broader economic and political landscape.
As we look towards the second and third quarters of 2024, estate agents anticipate that demand will continue to outstrip supply. This scenario is likely to sustain or possibly increase current house price levels. The resilience of the housing market, despite higher interest rates and living costs, suggests a robust foundation for future growth.