The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed their latest House Price Index yesterday. Property Industry Eye has a round-up of experts’ reactions to the latest figures.

The ONS data showed:

• In the year leading up to July, UK house prices saw an average increase of 0.6%. This figure is a decline from the 1.9% increase observed in June.
• The average house price in the UK stood at £290,000 in July. This is a £2,000 increase compared to July of the previous year. However, it’s worth noting that this is still £2,000 less than the peak seen in November 2022.

It’s essential to understand that the ONS’s house price data relies heavily on Land Registry data. Since this index depends on the average sold price of properties, it doesn’t offer real-time insights due to the often lengthy property transaction process.

Contrarily, property price indices from other institutions such as Nationwide and Halifax suggest that house prices are already on a downward trajectory.

Views from the Field: Industry Insights

Several experts have weighed in on these numbers and their implications. Here’s a snapshot of what they’re saying:

Jeremy Leaf, North London Estate Agent

Leaf believes the ONS’s data provides an invaluable insight, especially because it accounts for cash buyers, a significant segment considering the competitive mortgage landscape. However, he notes the figures might be slightly outdated. Leaf sees a ray of hope with buyers and sellers slowly emerging from a quieter summer, bolstered by potential stabilisation in base rates and recent positive inflation news.

Chris Druce, Senior Research Analyst at Knight Frank

Druce confirms the decline in house prices and anticipates this trend to continue with a potential 10% reduction in the coming months. Despite this, he believes strong wage growth, high employment, and more extended mortgage terms, coupled with leniency from lenders, will prevent prices from plummeting too drastically.

Lucian Cook, Head of Residential Research

Cook highlights the implications of a surprise drop in inflation on potential home buyers and those ending their fixed-rate mortgages. He notes the diminishing power of mortgages as a funding source, with cash buyers accounting for 44% of the housing market in the year leading up to June. However, he remains optimistic that inflation figures will bring economic stability, fostering competitive pricing in mortgage markets.

Others Speak Out

Industry leaders like Jason Tebb (OnTheMarket CEO), Iain McKenzie (The Guild of Property Professionals CEO), Nicky Stevenson (MD at Fine & Country), Jonathan Hopper (CEO of Garrington Property Finders), James Forrester (MD of Barrows and Forrester), and Chris Hodgkinson (MD of House Buyer Bureau) all share a general sentiment of caution, optimism, and resilience. They all underline the market’s robustness amidst economic uncertainty, stressing that while corrections might be happening, we’re not on the brink of collapse.

What Does This Mean for Potential Investors?

In essence, the UK property market remains sturdy despite external challenges. Here are some key takeaways for those looking to navigate this landscape:

• Steady, Not Stagnant: While there’s a slowdown, it’s not a halt. Prices might be adjusting, but they’re not plummeting uncontrollably.
• Mortgages Matter: The dynamics of borrowing are shifting, and it’s essential to stay informed about changes in interest and inflation rates.
• Listen to Local Experts: Regional insights can offer more tailored advice. Connecting with local agents can provide clarity in decision-making.

In conclusion, while the property market might be cooling down, it’s far from frozen. As always, staying informed and seeking expert guidance is the best way forward.