According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), while the average UK house price saw a minor increase of 0.4% between January and February 2024, it remained 0.2% lower compared to the same period last year. This positions the average house price at £281,262 in February 2024, showing a slight rise from £280,660 a year earlier.

Anthony Codling, head of European housing and building materials at RBC Capital Markets, encapsulates the current sentiment by stating, “House prices continue to sit on the fence having fallen by just £562 compared to one year ago.” Codling suggests that despite various economic and political challenges, the housing market has shown a commendable level of stability, potentially boosting the confidence of prospective home movers.

What the Experts Say

Experts like Iain McKenzie, chief executive of The Guild of Property Professionals, believe this stability is good news for both buyers and sellers. McKenzie highlights that the modest growth in recent months might extend into the busier spring and summer, improving prospects for homeowners who felt they missed out last year. “Sellers will be delighted by another month of modest house price growth and this trend could continue as we move through the busy spring and summer months,” McKenzie notes.

On the flip side, while buyers may not relish the prospect of rising prices, the stability should offer some assurance that new purchases will maintain their value shortly after acquisition.

Regional and Property Type Variations

House prices are not uniform across the board; significant discrepancies exist depending on location and property type. New builds, for instance, have surged by 16.4% year-on-year, masking potential declines in other market segments, which saw a general drop of 2.5%.

Detached and semi-detached homes are generally faring better, with increases of 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. In contrast, terraced houses and flats have decreased by about 1% over the same period.

Specific Regional Trends

• London: The capital has witnessed a significant decline, with house prices falling by 4.8% over the past 12 months.
• West Midlands: This region saw a 2.9% annual decline, with a noticeable 1.2% drop between January and February alone.
• Scotland: In contrast, Scotland reports a robust 5.6% increase year-on-year, despite a small dip of 0.6% between January and February.
• North East of England: Exhibiting perhaps the most vigorous growth, this region enjoyed a 3.2% increase in February, culminating in a 2.9% rise over the year.

Rob Southwell from Burchell Edwards in the West Midlands observed increased bargaining from buyers due to higher property availability, pushing sale prices down even as asking prices remain steady.

Future Outlook

The housing market’s future remains cautiously optimistic. Separate indices from Nationwide and Halifax show slight variations, with Nationwide recording a 1.6% annual rise and Halifax noting a marginal 0.3% increase over last year.

Jonathan Hopper of Garrington Property Finders and Ed Phillips of the Lomond Group both signal a slow, progressive recovery, contingent on broader economic factors such as mortgage rates and inflation, which are still above the Bank of England’s target.

As the year progresses, with potential political uncertainties and economic adjustments, the market might continue to experience mixed trends, requiring both buyers and sellers to stay informed and agile.