The UK property market is often perceived as slowing down during the winter months, especially as the holiday season approaches. However, according to Jonathan Rolande of the National Association of Property Buyers (NAPB), this year might bring some unexpected positive trends, despite the challenges faced throughout 2023.

The Christmas Rush: A Focus on Completion Rather Than New Sales

Rolande points out that while the number of new buyers and sellers typically decreases in early winter, those already in the process of buying or selling are more determined than ever to complete their transactions before Christmas. This heightened focus on finalising existing deals, however, won’t necessarily be reflected in the house price data. As these transactions were agreed upon weeks or even months earlier, it’s unlikely that we’ll see a significant rise in new sales before January.

Quarterly Data and Market Stability

The final quarter’s figures are anticipated to show enough activity to stabilize prices, preventing further drops. This stabilization is crucial for the market’s health as it approaches the end of the year. If this trend persists into 2024, it would be a significant relief for the property industry, indicating a less severe downturn than initially feared.

Factors Influencing the Market Outlook

There’s a sense of cautious optimism in the air. Landlords are showing renewed interest in purchasing properties, driven by the increase in rental prices. While this trend is unfavorable for tenants, it’s beneficial for landlords. Additionally, with interest rates possibly reaching their peak, people might find property investment more appealing than keeping their savings in the bank. This shift could lead to increased activity in buying homes for personal use, for relatives, or as buy-to-let investments.

Political and Economic Considerations

The upcoming election might positively influence the property market. The government’s efforts to create a ‘feel-good factor’ could boost market confidence. Lower fuel bills and a potential mild winter will also play a role, as people spend less on heating, leaving more disposable income for other expenditures. Furthermore, the reduction in National Insurance in January and the rise in the minimum wage in April are expected to increase many people’s disposable income.

However, it’s essential to remember that the cost of goods, food, and services has significantly risen in the past two years. Although the rate of increase has slowed down, prices are not dropping. The economy remains fragile, with many people still struggling with everyday expenses.